ASML maintains a commanding position in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, with no credible substitute for leading-edge chip production. The company reported a backlog of €39 billion at year-end 2025, driven by record system bookings and rising EUV tool shipments. Higher average selling prices for next-generation systems and an expanding installed base of service contracts underpin a forecasted margin expansion and recurring revenue growth through 2026 and beyond.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, ASML’s net sales rose by 29% year-over-year, reflecting robust demand from both logic foundries and memory manufacturers scaling AI infrastructure. Net bookings for the quarter reached €13.2 billion, more than double analysts’ consensus of €6.2 billion. This strong order flow underscores continued capital expenditure by hyperscalers and chipmakers investing in advanced lithography capacity.

Full-year revenue growth for 2025 was driven by EUV system sales and service revenue, yet growth in China showed signs of deceleration as customers recalibrated spending plans. While overall revenue rose by 5% in Q4, management projects revenue growth of between 4% and 19% for calendar 2026, reflecting both ongoing EUV demand and more cautious capital allocation in certain regions.

Despite the surge in orders and solid financial results, some analysts warn of a potential bull trap as share-price momentum cools. The moderation in China bookings, coupled with a more variable growth outlook for next year, suggests that investors may need to exercise selectivity. ASML’s technological leadership remains intact, but near-term share performance could face headwinds if new order momentum slows.