ASML's 'sold out' outlook forces investors to look beyond demand
ASML•ASML expects its supply of chip-printing tools to fall short of demand in 2027 and 2028, as customers discuss orders extending into 2029 and 2030. The company is considering adding about a dozen EUV machines to its planned annual capacity of 110 by 2028.
1. Supply remains constrained
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet said the company expects its supply of chip-printing tools used for advanced logic and memory chips to fall short of demand in both 2027 and 2028. Investor attention is shifting to whether ASML can raise capacity fast enough, as concerns also grow about how long AI demand will last.
2. Capacity and pricing plans
ASML plans to shorten assembly times, upgrade machines in operation and introduce faster models. It had planned to reach annual capacity of 110 EUV lithography machines by 2028 and is now considering adding perhaps a dozen more; the first phase of expanded manufacturing capacity in Eindhoven is not expected to come online until 2029. ASML has also said it expects to benefit from price increases in 2027 and 2028.
3. Investors weigh AI risks
ASML is seeking sizeable down payments on orders, and CFO Roger Dassen said they are “enough to hurt” if customers later cancel. The company is holding off on accepting orders for 2029 and 2030 while assessing customers’ readiness and its ability to meet demand. Skeptics cite questions about returns on AI investment, financing costs and data-center power availability; ASML shares fell 5% on Thursday as part of a broader market selloff.
