AST SpaceMobile shares climbed an astonishing 244% in 2025 after the company completed its first successful in-orbit test of direct-to-cell connectivity. That achievement unlocked multi-year agreements with major wireless carriers Verizon and AT&T, which committed to integrating AST’s service into their consumer plans. Investors cheered the demonstration of reliable coverage over North America, sending trading volume up 350% compared to the first quarter average.

Over the past six months, AST SpaceMobile stock has risen 101.7%, driven by the planned deployment of a six-satellite build in 2025 and preliminary negotiations with carriers in Europe and Asia. Management’s guidance calls for a constellation of 50 satellites by late 2026 or early 2027, a target that, if met, could open up direct-to-device service for more than two billion subscribers. Analysts cite the progress in manufacturing and launch partnerships as primary catalysts behind the extended rally.

Despite the recent gains, Scotiabank analyst Andres Coello downgraded the stock to underperform after concluding that AST may not sign its first standalone retail customer until 2027. The firm’s current market capitalization, around $37 billion before today’s decline, implies a valuation that Coello describes as “irrational” given only six satellites in service and a single launch in 2025. He projects high capital expenditures will delay positive free cash flow until 2028 or 2029 and assigns a downside target price representing roughly a 36% decline from recent levels.

AST SpaceMobile faces stiff competition from SpaceX’s Starlink, which already operates a fleet of over 4,000 satellites and has begun testing its own direct-to‐cell service. With an anticipated $1.5 trillion private valuation backing SpaceX and global brand recognition, investors worry AST may struggle to win market share. Carriers have signaled interest in multi-vendor strategies, meaning AST will need to undercut or match pricing while absorbing rising launch and manufacturing costs.