Astrana Health Q4 Revenue Surges 42.9% to $950.5M, Flags $265M EBITDA Guidance
In Q4 CY2025, Astrana Health generated $950.5 million in revenue, a 42.9% year-over-year increase that outpaced forecasts, while delivering GAAP earnings of $0.12 per share in line with consensus. Management estimates $950 million in Q1 sales and midpoint FY2026 EBITDA of $265 million, shy of analyst projections.
1. Q4 CY2025 Financial Results
Astrana Health reported Q4 CY2025 revenue of $950.5 million, marking a 42.9% year-over-year increase and a 2.3% beat over expectations. GAAP EPS reached $0.12 per share, matching consensus, while adjusted EBITDA totaled $52.45 million (5.5% margin). Operating margin improved to 1.9% from 0.1%, and free cash flow loss narrowed to $5.95 million from $13.48 million.
2. Guidance Outlook
Management anticipates Q1 CY2026 revenue at the $950 million midpoint, in line with projections. Fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance is set at $265 million midpoint, falling short of the $267.3 million analyst forecast, highlighting cautious cost management going forward.
3. Historical Growth and Profitability Trends
Over the past five years, Astrana Health’s revenue has grown at a 35.9% compound annual rate, with two-year annualized growth of 51.5%, signifying accelerating demand. However, operating margin has declined by 10.2 percentage points over five years and EPS has fallen 14.7% annually, reflecting rising expenses and share dilution.
4. Market Reaction and Analyst Outlook
Shares jumped 3.9% to $21.13 following the earnings release. Sell-side analysts project 24.5% revenue growth over the next 12 months and anticipate full-year EPS rising 117% to $0.46, indicating optimism despite mixed guidance.