AT&T Net Debt/EBITDA to Climb to 3.5x, 6% Preferreds Face Downgrade Risk

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AT&T’s acquisitions of Lumen fiber assets and EchoStar spectrum licenses will push its net debt/EBITDA toward 3.5x, deferring its return to target leverage by about three years. Preferred shares T.PR.A and T.PR.C yield just over 6% but carry heightened downgrade risk and lag superior-rated alternatives.

1. Unusually Low Valuation and Strong Dividend Coverage

AT&T’s forward price-to-cash flow ratio stands at just 4.4x while the dividend yield approaches 4.7%, a combination that historically raises safety concerns. In this case, free cash flow coverage of the payout ratio remains above 200%, driven by roughly $16 billion in guided annual free cash flow. That buffer supports two full years of dividend distributions even under conservative cash flow assumptions, leaving substantial room for capital investment and debt reduction without endangering income stability.

2. Growth Drivers Support EPS Expansion

Analysts forecast earnings per share to grow at an approximate annual rate of 7% over the next three years. Key contributors include accelerated fiber broadband rollouts targeting an additional 5 million homes by year-end, acquisition of mid-band spectrum licenses to bolster wireless capacity, and disciplined capital allocation yielding a return on capital employed in the mid-teens. Management’s plan calls for net debt to EBITDA to peak near 3.5x after recent spectrum and fiber asset transactions, then decline toward a 2.5x target as cash generation ramps up.

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