AT&T's wireless business has added more than 300,000 net postpaid phone subscribers each quarter since early 2023, driven by targeted promotional campaigns and customer retention efforts. In Q3 2025, postpaid phone churn was just 0.92%, one of the lowest in the industry. Meanwhile, AT&T’s fiber network now passes over 31 million locations, with consumer penetration reaching 40% by the end of Q3. Quarterly net additions of at least 200,000 consumer fiber subscribers have been recorded throughout 2025, and the company serves approximately 4.2 million converged customers who subscribe to both fiber and wireless services, enhancing average revenue per user and reducing churn risks.

AT&T generated over $16 billion in free cash flow during fiscal 2025, comfortably covering its quarterly dividend of $0.2775 per share, which yields approximately 4.5% on current share counts. Dividend payments consumed less than 50% of free cash flow, leaving ample cushion for capital investments and debt reduction. While the board has not announced a dividend increase since 2019, management emphasizes balance sheet improvement following large media acquisitions and a recent $23 billion spectrum purchase. Free cash flow is projected to climb above $18 billion by 2027, underpinning long-term dividend coverage.

Despite the spectrum acquisition, AT&T reaffirmed its plan to deploy $20 billion toward share repurchases through 2027. This initiative targets a reduction in share count of roughly 10% over the next two years, which would boost earnings per share and lower aggregate dividend outlays. In the first nine months of 2025, AT&T spent $7.5 billion on buybacks, retiring approximately 300 million shares. Continued buybacks at this pace are expected to deliver double-digit percentage increases in EPS by 2027.

With a market capitalization near $176 billion and free cash flow multiples around 11 times guidance, AT&T trades at a discount to peers with similar yield profiles. Investor models forecast free cash flow growth of 5% annually through 2027, driven by converged customer expansion and margin improvements in the fiber business. Factoring in sustained 4.5% dividend yield and projected EPS gains from buybacks, total shareholder returns could exceed 8% per annum over the next two years, offering a compelling risk-adjusted opportunity outside high-growth, high-debt sectors.