Aura Group flags higher-for-longer RBA risk as oil shock lifts inflation pressure

TLT•2026-09-18

Inflation pressures remain elevated

Underlying inflation remained above the RBA’s 2%-3% target band, while Brent crude rose above USD 108 on renewed Iran conflict escalation.

Money markets priced about an 80% chance of a fourth rate increase at the September meeting. Markets fully priced a move to 4.85% by March, with the cash rate seen near 5% by mid-2027.

Aura Group sees higher-for-longer RBA risk

Aura Group analysis flagged a rising risk of higher-for-longer Australian rates following hawkish RBA commentary in September 2026.

Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter cited resilient household spending, firm business investment and constrained supply capacity as inflation risks.

Sources

Aura Group flags higher-for-longer RBA risk as oil shock lifts inflation pressure

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Aura Group flags higher-for-longer RBA risk as oil shock lifts inflation pressure

Inflation pressures remain elevated

Aura Group sees higher-for-longer RBA risk

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