TLT•Market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point RBA rate increase on November 3 rose above 60%, from around 27% before Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s remarks. A hike would lift the cash rate to 4.85%.
Market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point increase on November 3 rose above 60%, from around 27% before RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s hawkish remarks. A November increase would lift the cash rate to 4.85%, while markets fully price another increase by February 2027.
Next week’s September-quarter CPI release will be pivotal, and an upside surprise is likely to strengthen expectations of a November increase. Treasury projects government spending at 26.9% of GDP in 2025-26, the highest outside COVID since 1986.
