Australian dollar extends winning streak to ninth week as rate outlook shifts

That was all thanks to a sharp repricing in the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate outlook, with markets now wagering on a 52% probability that the fourth rate hike this year could come as soon as next month. A quarter-point move by the year end is fully priced in, with some risk of another next year. 0#AUDIRPR

"Near-term AUD upside risks have increased," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at the National Australia Bank, although he still sees the Aussie to trade in the $0.6850 and $0.7278 range for the year, given markets could be running ahead of relative rate expectations.

"Medium-term fundamentals remain less supportive: additional tightening should weigh on 2027 growth and ultimately prompt RBA rate cuts, while the Australian yield curve and the prospect of narrower 10-year ACGB–UST spreads point to limited AUD upside."