Barclays forecasts AWS revenue growth of about 34% in Q3 2026, fueled by rising demand for agentic AI workloads and a long‐term agreement with OpenAI that could generate roughly $138 billion in spending over seven to eight years. The firm also noted rapid early-2026 ARR growth at Anthropic, contributing to a 5% increase in its 2027 AWS revenue forecast and expectations for AI-related revenue to exceed $10 billion by year-end.

To accommodate surging AI demand, AWS plans to roughly double its infrastructure capacity by 2027, aiming to sustain above-consensus growth through that year. Expanded compute capabilities and partnerships with leading AI labs position AWS to capture further share in the cloud AI market.

Amazon is shifting its Prime Day event from July to June to capitalize on early back-to-school demand and strengthen second-quarter results. While the move may enhance Q2 revenue, it could also introduce tougher year-over-year comparisons and margin pressure in Q3 due to deeper promotional discounts.

Improved visibility on cloud growth, potential IPOs of AI labs and momentum in agentic AI could drive a positive re-rating of Amazon’s shares. However, near-term headwinds such as higher shipping costs, fuel price impacts and increased AI investment spending remain potential risks to profitability.