Azure Revenue Up 40%, RPO Nears $400B as Capex Hits $34.9B

MSFTMSFT

Microsoft’s Azure and cloud services revenue rose 40% y/y last quarter, lifting commercial backlog (RPO) by over 50% to nearly $400B. Capital expenditures climbed to $34.9B due to supply constraints, while the stock trades at approximately 33x forward earnings.

1. Robust Cloud Momentum Driving Revenue Growth

Microsoft’s cloud division, led by Azure and related services, sustained its position as the primary growth engine in the latest quarter. Aggregate revenue rose 18% year-over-year to $77.7 billion, with Azure and other cloud services contributing a 40% increase. Management reported that commercial remaining performance obligations (RPO)—the contracted future revenue pipeline—surged over 50% to nearly $400 billion, underscoring strong, multiyear customer commitments and capacity constraints that are expected to persist through the fiscal year end.

2. Elevated Investment Levels Weigh on Margins

To satisfy booming demand for AI-capable infrastructure, Microsoft’s capital expenditures reached $34.9 billion in the quarter—up substantially from the prior year—and management projects even faster capex growth in fiscal 2026. While this investment has supported capacity expansion, it exerted downward pressure on gross margins, which slipped slightly to 69%. Nonetheless, the company generated record free cash flow of $25.7 billion (a 33% increase year-over-year), sustaining its solid liquidity position despite the heavy outlays.

3. Valuation and Near-Term Catalysts ahead of Q2 Results

Microsoft enters its second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings announcement with a forward price-to-earnings multiple near 33, reflecting elevated market expectations for continued cloud and AI leadership. The company pays a quarterly dividend yielding approximately 0.73%, with a payout ratio of about 26%. Investors will focus on whether Azure growth sustains its current trajectory, how operating leverage evolves as capex ramps, and any commentary on AI product monetization when results are released on January 28.

Sources

FZFFI
+15 more