Bank of America Shares Slip Up to 2% After Trump’s Proposed 10% Rate Cap

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Bank of America shares fell between 1% and 2% Monday morning after President Trump proposed capping credit card interest rates at 10% for one year. The potential cap has prompted market concerns over reduced card revenue and intensified pressure on major card issuers.

1. Strong Historical Earnings Performance

Bank of America has outperformed consensus earnings estimates in 10 of its last 12 quarters, delivering an average surprise of +4.2%. Over the past three years, the bank’s pre-provision net revenue has grown at a compound annual rate of 6.5%, driven by expanding trading volumes and higher net interest income. In the most recent quarter, noninterest income climbed 8% year-over-year, underscoring the firm’s diversified revenue base and disciplined cost management, which kept the efficiency ratio near a decade-low of 57%.

2. Key Drivers for the Upcoming Report

Analysts expect the next quarterly results to benefit from two primary factors: a projected 3% quarter-over-quarter increase in net interest income due to a wider managed margin, and resilient client activity in the fixed-income trading desk, where daily volumes averaged $58 billion in the latest reporting period. Additionally, commercial lending balances have expanded by 4% sequentially, while card transaction volumes rose 5%, reflecting sustained consumer spending and business investment.

3. Guidance and Capital Metrics

Management is set to provide full-year 2026 targets for return on tangible common equity, with consensus forecasts centered on a range of 15% to 17%. The bank finished the quarter with a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 11.8%, exceeding regulatory requirements and allowing for continued share repurchases. Purchase authorizations of $5.5 billion remain available under the current program, positioning the firm to return excess capital while maintaining a capital buffer above its internal threshold of 10.5% CET1.

Sources

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