Bank of Canada to raise rates to 2.50% on October 28 and once again by end-March
TLT•A majority of economists polled expect the Bank of Canada to raise its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on October 28, then make one more increase by the end of March. Poll medians show the rate reaching 2.75% before March 2027.
1. Economists expect rate hikes
Nineteen of 34 economists surveyed forecast a quarter-point increase to 2.50% on October 28, which would be the Bank of Canada's first move in a year. Sixteen of 29 respondents expect one more increase before March 2027, after which the overnight rate would stand at 2.75%.
2. Inflation and growth outlook
Inflation reached 3.1% in September, just above the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%. Poll medians show economic growth slowing to 1.9% last quarter and 1.3% in the current quarter, before accelerating next year; inflation is forecast to average 2.8% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027.
