But the recent jump in energy prices triggered by the Iran war is shifting opinion towards one — following hikes by the European Central Bank and the Fed.
The latter raised borrowing costs on Wednesday and signalled further increases ahead, citing stubborn inflation pressure driven in part by a jump in energy costs, fuelled by the war with Iran, that is also bearing down on Britain.
British natural gas and Brent crude futures have leapt by almost 20% this month — bad news for a country heavily reliant on imported energy.
If sustained, that would push inflation — already at 3.1% in August — further above the BoE's 2% target, which the central bank has missed in all but three months of the last five years.
"We... expect the BoE to stay on hold this week as it seeks to avoid adding to market expectations for a rapid tightening cycle, but we continue to expect the Bank will go at the November (meeting)," J.P. Morgan economist Allan Monks said.
In a note to clients, he added there was "a clear argument for the BoE not delaying a hike any longer", given that energy price moves pointed to inflation peaking at 3.9% in February.
Others are not so sure, highlighting a cooling labour market and elevated market interest rates that are doing some of the BoE's work in tightening financial conditions.
"Nowhere is the gap between market pricing and policymaker expectations more stark than in the UK," said analysts from investment banking advisory firm Evercore ISI.
"(The) rates market is discounting roughly four-and-a-half hikes over the next year but the Bank leadership in our view still hopes to make it through without raising rates."
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey told reporters at the central bank's last rate-setting meeting: "Please do not leave this room thinking that the Bank of England is edging towards a hike."
U.S. asset management firm Franklin Templeton said on Wednesday that gilts looked "particularly attractive" as a cooling labour market and softer economic outlook augured for looser BoE policy than priced in by the market.
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