Bank of Korea warns chip exports could fall by up to $100 billion if AI spending slows
SMH•South Korea's semiconductor exports could be $50 billion to $100 billion below earlier forecasts if major U.S. technology firms slow AI capital spending next year, the Bank of Korea said. Its pessimistic scenario would reduce GDP growth by about 0.4 percentage point and assumes a 10% decline in Korean chip prices.
1. Downside scenario
The Bank of Korea modelled a pessimistic scenario in which major U.S. technology firms curb spending on AI infrastructure. In that case, South Korean semiconductor exports could fall by $50 billion to $100 billion compared with earlier forecasts, reducing next year's GDP growth rate by approximately 0.4 percentage point.
2. Spending and uncertainty
The scenario assumes a 10% decline in Korean semiconductor unit prices and would push the current account surplus well below the central bank's initial $430 billion projection for 2027. Capital spending by Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle is estimated at $80 billion this year, up from $40 billion last year, and projected to reach $110 billion next year. The central bank said uncertainty remains over AI demand and the memory-chip business cycle.
