Barclays Boosts AWS Forecasts: $138B OpenAI Deal and 34% Q3 Growth
Barclays reiterated an Overweight rating with a $300 price target, citing an OpenAI agreement driving $138 billion in AWS spending over the next 7–8 years. The analyst raised 2027 AWS revenue forecasts by 5%, expecting a backlog above $350 billion and 34% growth in Q3 2026.
1. AWS OpenAI Agreement
Amazon Web Services secured a major multi-year deal with OpenAI expected to generate approximately $138 billion in revenue over the next seven to eight years, marking one of the largest long-term cloud contracts in the industry.
2. Forecast Revisions and Backlog
Barclays increased its 2027 AWS revenue forecast by 5% and predicts AWS backlog will exceed $350 billion next quarter, with growth reaching 34% in Q3 2026, reflecting accelerated enterprise demand for AI infrastructure.
3. Anthropic ARR Growth
Enterprise adoption of Anthropic’s AI products drove annual recurring revenue up 35% within weeks during the first quarter of 2026, boosting confidence that estimates may continue to rise as product-market fit strengthens.
4. Long-Term Outlook and Catalysts
Leadership projects a path to $600 billion in revenue by 2036, implying an 11% CAGR; additional upside could come from AI company IPOs, increased agentic AI adoption and manageable shipping cost inflation.