Barclays sees upside risks to 2026 Brent price view given Strait of Hormuz impasse
XLE•Barclays sees higher Brent price risk if Strait of Hormuz impasse persists
July 24 (Reuters) - Barclays said on Friday that risks to its oil price forecasts are skewed higher depending on how long the "impasse" over the Strait of Hormuz lasts.
In a scenario in which the current situation lasts for another one, two, or three months, Barclays thinks there could be a $2 per barrel, $7/bbl or $10/bbl upside risk, respectively, to its $96/bbl 2026 Brent forecast.
Oil prices spiked to $100 a barrel for the first time since May this week, as renewed hostilities revived investor worries over global supply disruptions from a near-halt in trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices eased to just below $100 on Friday.
"As is generally the case, spot price will likely lead the move and could test $150/bbl in the 3-months scenario," the bank said in a note.
The Strait of Hormuz was the main transit route for around a fifth of global energy supplies before the conflict began.
Earlier this month, Barclays maintained its $96/bbl and $85/bbl Brent forecasts for 2026 and 2027, respectively.
The conflict has deepened forecasts of a global oil deficit in 2026, according to a Reuters poll of analysts, but recovering Gulf flows, robust U.S. production and weaker demand from China are expected to tip the market into an oversupply in 2027.
