In the third quarter, Barrick Mining reported a 13% year-over-year drop in gold sales, delivering 1.2 million ounces compared with 1.38 million ounces in the same period last year. Operational setbacks at the Lumwana copper mine and increased water management requirements at its Nevada operations contributed to the shortfall. Management now concedes that these issues will delay meeting the lower end of its previously stated 4.8–5.2 million ounce gold production range for full-year 2025. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) rose by 6% sequentially to $1,050 per ounce, pressuring near-term margins and cash flow generation.

Barrick’s forward price‐to‐earnings multiple of 21x is steep compared with the peer group average of 15x, but analysts expect that ratio to compress to approximately 12.6x by 2027. This forecast is underpinned by a projected 30% increase in attributable copper production and a 10% lift in gold output over the next two years, driven by higher commodity prices outpacing stable AISC guidance near $1,000 per ounce. At current metal price assumptions—gold at $1,900 per ounce and copper at $4.00 per pound—Bloomberg consensus EBITDA is set to grow at a 12% compound annual rate through 2026.

With the resolution of its Mali dispute, Barrick has reinstated a mid-teens percentage of annual gold production previously on hold, restoring roughly 300,000 ounces of output. The company’s high-grade Fourmile discovery in Nevada, which holds an estimated 1.5 million ounces of proven and probable reserves, could boost annual gold production by around 20% once full development is complete in the early 2030s. Additionally, management is evaluating an IPO of its Nevada, Fourmile and Pueblo Viejo assets, a move expected to unlock value by isolating higher-growth operations and attracting a separate valuation multiple for those cash flows.