BBVA’s U.S.-listed shares were down 3.82% to $21.13 in Monday trading (May 4, 2026) as the market weighed the bank’s more cautious credit stance, despite a strong first-quarter earnings print. In the Q1 reporting package and call commentary, BBVA flagged a roughly €100 million post-model adjustment and highlighted higher provisioning tied mainly to Spain and Turkey—messaging that traders treated as a near-term profitability and risk signal.

BBVA reported Q1 2026 net profit of €2.989 billion, up 10.8% year over year, alongside solid core revenue momentum and capital generation. However, management also emphasized prudence in risk management, including the additional post-model adjustment and discussion of macro/geopolitical uncertainty that can affect credit costs, particularly in Turkey (Garanti BBVA) and other key markets.

BBVA is preparing to start a new buyback tranche on May 6, 2026, with a maximum cash outlay of €1.46 billion, part of its multi-tranche capital return plan. Even so, bank stocks often trade more on forward credit costs and net interest income trajectory than on headline earnings beats; the market reaction suggests investors are discounting a higher-through-cycle cost of risk and less visibility on credit normalization.

Key near-term catalysts are the start of the May 6 buyback execution and any incremental detail on provisioning trends in Spain and Turkey, including whether the €100 million post-model adjustment repeats in coming quarters. Investors will also watch sensitivity to Mexico’s tax and credit dynamics, as Mexico remains a major earnings driver, and any shift in the bank’s 2026 guidance posture as macro conditions evolve.