Beaten at home, Trump faces stark choice on Iran: deal or escalation
SPY•After Democrats won control of Congress in midterm elections, Trump faces a choice between seeking a negotiated exit from the Iran war and escalating it, analysts and Gulf sources said. The conflict has disrupted energy supplies and left Iran’s nuclear programme unresolved.
1. Election shifts calculations
Voters weary of the war and facing soaring fuel prices handed Democrats control of Congress, weakening Trump’s position in Washington. Two sources close to Gulf government circles said the result gave him greater incentive to seek a deal and made a full-scale assault on Iran less likely; limited strikes on nuclear facilities could offer a way to claim US objectives had been met.
2. Escalation remains possible
Gulf analysts warned that a deal seen as a clear Iranian victory could provoke escalation rather than restraint. Iran’s chief negotiator hailed a “NO TO WAR” result, but two senior Iranian sources said Tehran remained on high alert for possible US strikes. Analysts also said Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could see escalation as a way out of their political difficulties.
3. Gulf states set conditions
Gulf states want the war to end, but oppose any settlement that disregards freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, permits Iranian tolls or political conditions on shipping, or leaves them exposed to military threats. The conflict began with US-Israeli strikes on February 28 and spread across the region, disrupting global energy supplies; Iran’s nuclear programme remains unresolved.
