The MSCI World Metals & Mining Index has rebounded sharply to within 5% of its pre-war level, reflecting a V-shaped equity recovery over the past two weeks. Despite strong commodity pricing, most mining stocks now trade above their five-year valuation multiples, raising concerns over a potential sector peak.

Barrick Gold stands out as one of the few names trading below its five-year average multiple and is rated Outperform by Bernstein. The firm's lower relative valuation suggests room for upside if commodity prices remain elevated or further supply disruptions arise.

Aluminium supply has been hit by Middle East conflict, with Gulf producers accounting for roughly 9% of global output and prices up 17% since hostilities began. Thermal coal and LNG shortages have also boosted coal demand, while gold faces headwinds from rising U.S. real yields despite steady central bank buying.