Bernstein Keeps $135 Target for Gilead after Capping Medicaid Impact at $200M
Bernstein SocGen Group reiterated its Outperform rating on Gilead Sciences with a $135 target after confirming only Genvoya and Odefsey— which generated about $750 million in 2023 Medicaid spend—face MFN pricing. It forecasts under $200 million 2026 revenue impact—a low single-digit share of total sales.
1. Institutional Shift in Gilead Holdings
Abacus FCF Advisors LLC reduced its Gilead Sciences stake by 16.0% in the third quarter, selling 26,340 shares and ending the period with 138,674 shares, representing 2.0% of its portfolio and valued at approximately $15.4 million. Several large institutions bolstered positions: Ameriprise Financial increased its holding by 397.6% to 6.75 million shares, valued at $748 million; Invesco lifted its stake by 33.5% to 13.52 million shares worth $1.50 billion; Assenagon Asset Management expanded by 164.4% to 3.49 million shares, about $387 million; Norges Bank initiated a new stake valued near $2.15 billion; Kingstone Capital Partners Texas added a $238 million position. Institutional ownership stands at 83.67%.
2. Insider Transactions Reflect Caution
Insiders have sold a combined 126,257 shares over the past 90 days, totaling $15.6 million. On December 15, Johanna Mercier divested 3,000 shares at an average of $122 for $366,000, reducing her holding by 2.75% to 106,221 shares. On November 28, Director Jeffrey Bluestone sold 5,000 shares at $125.08, netting $625,400 and cutting his position by 35.9% to 8,920 shares. Insider ownership remains low at 0.27%.
3. Strong Q3 Performance and 2025 Guidance
Gilead reported Q3 revenue of $7.77 billion, exceeding consensus by $350 million and marking a 3.0% year-over-year increase. Adjusted EPS of $2.47 topped estimates by $0.31, driving a net margin of 27.9% and ROE of 51.9%. The company set full-year 2025 EPS guidance at 8.05–8.25, in line with analyst projections of 7.95, underpinned by antiviral and oncology pipeline momentum.
4. Attractive Yield and Analyst Upgrades
Gilead declared a quarterly dividend of $0.79 per share, yielding 2.5% annually, with an ex-dividend date of December 15 and payout ratio of 48.99%. Analyst sentiment has strengthened: Morgan Stanley raised its target to $151 with an Overweight rating; Wells Fargo and Mizuho lifted targets to $150 and $140 respectively, both endorsing Buy/outperform stances; Argus increased its target to $135 with a Buy rating. Consensus view is Moderate Buy with an average target near $131.68.