Bernstein Triples SanDisk Target to $3,000, Highlights $0.29/GB Contract Floor
SNDK•Bernstein raised SanDisk’s price target to $3,000 from $1,700, boosting shares 6.43% on expectations that long-term supply agreements will curb earnings volatility. It sets a $0.29 per gigabyte contract floor and forecasts 2030 EPS of $214 under a 72% price decline, with base-case EPS of $272 by 2028.
1. Analyst Triples Price Target
Bernstein raised SanDisk’s target to $3,000 from $1,700, reiterating an Outperform rating and driving a 6.43% intraday share gain.
2. New Supply Agreements Offer Stability
SanDisk’s new long-term agreements span three-to-five years with fixed or range-bound pricing and upfront commitments, creating a contract floor at $0.29 per gigabyte to shield against severe price downturns.
3. Projections Under Varying Scenarios
Modeling a worst-case 72% price decline with 60% volume coverage still yields fiscal 2030 EPS of $214; base-case forecasts now stand at $243 in 2027 and $272 in 2028, while bull-case scenarios reach $350 and $400.
4. NAND Contract Prices Surge
Contract prices in the NAND market rose 33-38% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 and saw a further 70-75% increase in Q2, underpinning the positive outlook for SanDisk’s margins and supply deal valuations.
