BigBear.AI Q4 Loss Narrows to $0.01, Revenue Misses by 18%
BigBear.AI posted a Q4 loss of $0.01 per share, topping a $0.06 loss estimate, while revenue fell 38% to $27.3M, missing $33.3M consensus on lower Army program volume. It ended 2025 with $462M cash, settled $125M convertibles and guided 2026 revenue to $135M–$165M versus $164.3M consensus.
1. Q4 Financial Results
BigBear.AI delivered a Q4 loss of $0.01 per share compared with a $0.06 loss estimate. Revenue declined 38% year-over-year to $27.3M, falling short of the $33.3M consensus on reduced Army program volume.
2. Balance Sheet and Settlements
At the end of 2025, BigBear.AI held $462M in cash and investments and settled $125M of its 2029 convertible notes in January 2026, enhancing its liquidity and lowering future debt obligations.
3. 2026 Outlook
The company projects full-year 2026 revenue between $135M and $165M, with the midpoint slightly below the $164.3M analyst consensus, signaling cautious optimism for growth acceleration.
4. Analyst Reactions
Analyst reactions were mixed: HC Wainwright cut its price target from $8 to $6 under a Buy rating, Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its target from $6 to $5 with a Neutral stance, and the average price target now stands at $4.38.