Biggest market impact of US midterms may be 2028 countdown
SPY•The US midterms could shift investor attention toward the 2028 presidential race, with betting markets putting the chance of Democrats taking both chambers above 60%. Since Donald Trump’s 2024 election win, the S&P 500 and MSCI’s all-country stock index have gained just over 30%, while 10-year Treasury yields have risen 100 basis points.
1. Midterms and 2028
The US midterm elections could begin a countdown to the 2028 presidential race, columnist Mike Dolan writes. If Democrats take both legislative chambers, policy gridlock could follow for the remaining two years of Donald Trump’s term, while he retains control of foreign policy.
2. Policy risks for investors
Potential issues include a debt-ceiling standoff, stalled cryptocurrency legislation and regional efforts to slow AI data-center construction. JPMorgan’s Center for Geopolitics identified domestic gridlock, Trump seeking a legacy and the start of the 2028 race as areas to watch, including for their implications for Iran and the wider Middle East, Ukraine and Russia, Latin America, China and NATO.
3. Markets since 2024
Prediction markets put Democrats’ chances of taking both chambers above 60%, and the odds of a Democratic or Republican presidential win in 2028 roughly even. Since Trump’s 2024 win, the S&P 500 and MSCI’s all-country stock index have risen just over 30%, the Nasdaq has gained 42%, and 10-year Treasury yields have climbed 100 basis points. Dolan notes that much of the market gains may owe more to AI than to Trump.
