Biggest market impact of US midterms may be 2028 countdown: Mike Dolan
SPY•The US midterm elections may prompt investors to focus on the 2028 presidential race and the durability of current policies. Prediction markets put the chance of Democrats taking both chambers above 60%, while the S&P 500 has gained just over 30% since Donald Trump’s 2024 win.
1. Investors look toward 2028
Next week’s US midterm elections could bring domestic policy gridlock if Democrats win both chambers, while also starting a countdown to the 2028 presidential race, Mike Dolan writes. The shift could raise questions about the future of US policy on energy, supply chains, cryptocurrency legislation and AI data-center construction.
2. Markets and political odds
Polymarket and Kalshi put the chance of Democrats taking both chambers above 60%, and the chance of winning at least the House above 90%. The odds of a Democrat or Republican winning the White House in 2028 are roughly even, though conviction about potential candidates remains low.
3. Two years of market moves
Since Trump’s 2024 win, the S&P 500 and MSCI’s all-country stock index have gained just over 30%, the Nasdaq has risen 42% and the Magnificent Seven have gained 45%. World crude oil prices are up 53%, while the dollar index is down less than 2% and 10-year Treasury yields have risen 100 basis points.
