Bitcoin Trades Near $65,829 as Fed’s Warsh Presides on Rate-Hold Odds
COIN•Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting today as Bitcoin trades near $65,829 with markets pricing a 3.50-3.75% rate-hold at 97.4% probability. Bitcoin has declined after 8 of the last 9 Fed meetings, averaging an 11% drop 48 hours post-meeting.
1. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s First Meeting
Kevin Warsh takes the helm for his first FOMC meeting today while Bitcoin holds around $65,829. Markets have priced a 3.50-3.75% rate-hold at a 97.4% probability, making Warsh’s forward guidance the primary driver for traders.
2. Historical Bitcoin Sensitivity Patterns
Since early 2023, Bitcoin’s response to Fed meetings has varied: mixed price action in Phase 1 left no clear edge, while Phase 2 in 2024 saw post-meeting “sell the news” drops of roughly 5-6% following rate decisions. A December 2024 cut peaked Bitcoin near $108,000 before a swift reversal.
3. Recent Systematic Post-Meeting Declines
In Phase 3 (2025–2026), Bitcoin rallied after only 1 of 8 Fed meetings in 2025 and has slipped after every rate hold this year. Eight of the last nine meetings triggered average 48-hour declines of about 11%, underscoring a consistent macro anomaly.
