BLADEX sees Latin America resilient in H2 2026 despite energy shock risk
BLX•Political and ratings backdrop
The political landscape was marked by voter backlash against incumbents, with Brazil’s election and the US midterms viewed as key directional signals.
Ratings agencies remained broadly constructive but highlighted fiscal consolidation, debt sustainability, institutional strength, and structural reform execution as core constraints.
Energy shock and El Niño risks
Energy shock risk and a stronger El Niño scenario were seen as the main macro threats, with potential inflation and fiscal impacts across major economies.
BLADEX regional outlook for Latin America in H2 2026
BLADEX published a regional macroeconomic outlook for Latin America for 2026-H2, citing elevated global uncertainty from Middle East tensions.
US trade policy shifts, a more cautious Federal Reserve stance, and inflation pressures were flagged as key external variables for regional risk pricing.
