AST SpaceMobile Falls 13.4% on Blue Origin TeraWave; UBS Lifts Target to $137
Blue Origin announced TeraWave, a 5,408-satellite network launching in late 2027, sparking a 13.4% drop in AST SpaceMobile shares. UBS set a $137 price target (18.34% upside) after AST SpaceMobile reported $14.7 million in third-quarter revenue and secured a Missile Defense Agency SHIELD Program contract.
1. Blue Origin Enters Satellite Market
Blue Origin unveiled its TeraWave network today, planning a 5,408-satellite constellation capable of 6 terabytes per second of space-based connectivity beginning deployment in late 2027. The announcement sent AST SpaceMobile shares down sharply, reflecting investor concern over deep-pocketed competition joining the low-Earth orbit communications arena. While ASTS has yet to face this rival in orbit, the move underscores growing competitive pressures as Blue Origin targets enterprise, data center and government users globally.
2. Accelerating Revenue Trajectory
AST SpaceMobile reported third-quarter revenue of $14.7 million and reiterated guidance for fourth-quarter sales between $35 million and $50 million, marking a sequential increase of up to 240%. Management expects full-year 2026 revenue to approach $200 million—roughly triple 2024 levels—highlighting the company’s rapid monetization of its initial satellite deployments. This trajectory will be critical as ASTS scales from prototype to commercial service.
3. Strategic U.S. Defense Partnership
AST SpaceMobile secured a contract with the U.S. Missile Defense Agency under the SHIELD Program, providing secure command-and-control and communications links via its low-Earth orbit satellites. This award, part of the Pentagon’s Golden Dome strategy, positions ASTS as a key partner in national security infrastructure and diversifies its revenue mix beyond commercial carriers and enterprise clients.
4. Elevated Valuation and Volume Surge
AST SpaceMobile trades at an estimated price-to-sales ratio near 200, reflecting sky-high expectations for its space-based broadband platform. Shares have climbed more than 14% on heavy turnover, with daily volume exceeding 30 million units, as investors weigh aggressive growth forecasts against competitive and execution risks. Continued volatility appears likely as market participants calibrate ASTS’s long-term potential against near-term technical deployment milestones.