BNY Mellon strategists say the S&P 500 has historically regained an average 12% within six months after crisis-driven selloffs and seen 75% of corrections under 20% fully reverse within three months. They contend these patterns demonstrate the index’s long-term resilience despite current geopolitical tensions.
BNY Mellon’s Global Markets team highlights that, over the past five decades, the S&P 500 has consistently bounced back from major shocks, including wars, recessions and bubbles, underscoring sustained market strength.
Their analysis shows an average 12% gain six months after peak volatility events and that 75% of downturns under 20% resolved within three months, illustrating rapid recoveries.
Based on these resilience metrics, strategists advise maintaining core equity allocations to capture rebounds, while selectively rebalancing exposure during heightened volatility periods.
BNY Mellon warns that unprecedented geopolitical or economic disruptions could prolong downturns beyond historical norms, and recommends monitoring liquidity and valuation signals for risk management.
