BoE to raise rates to 4% in November, but economists narrowly expect hold from there
TLT•A majority of economists polled expect the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in November. Economists have no majority view on further increases, although 30 of 61 expect another rise in the first quarter of 2027.
1. November rate rise expected
A total of 54 of 63 economists polled between October 12 and 14 forecast the Bank of England would raise Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% next month. The decision will coincide with the central bank’s next set of quarterly forecasts. Last month, about 90% of respondents expected rates to remain on hold for the rest of the year.
2. Further increases uncertain
Economists remain divided on what follows the November move: 30 of 61 expect one more increase in the first quarter of 2027. Markets are pricing in four quarter-point increases by the end of next year. Governor Andrew Bailey recently hinted that a rate rise was likely, while economists have raised their inflation forecasts.
3. Inflation and growth forecasts
Economists forecast inflation to average 3.6% this quarter, 3.8% next quarter and 3.0% in 2027, all higher than in last month’s poll. They raised their 2026 growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.1%, while keeping forecasts for 2027 and 2028 at 1.2% and 1.5%.
