Boeing keeps 20-year forecast for jet demand steady, shrugs off Iran war impact

Boeing expects air passenger traffic growth of about 2.3% this year, less than half of last year's growth rate of 5.3%. It expects growth to rebound to 6%-7% in 2027 and 5%-6% in 2028.

"Our outlook is that passenger traffic globally will be where it would have been by the end of 2028," Boeing Commercial Marketing Vice President Darren Hulst told reporters. He described the current slowdown as different from the multi-year demand shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Boeing expects passenger traffic to grow 4% annually over the next 20 years, with cargo traffic rising 3.7%, the jet fleet expanding 3% and the world economy growing 2.5%.

Demand for new aircraft continues to grow faster than planemakers can deliver new jets. Passenger traffic last year had rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, but deliveries of new jets remained below the 2018 output, Hulst said.