BofA Sees Musk’s $60B Terafab Delayed by 3–5 Years; TSMC Up 7.5% YTD
BofA Securities projects Musk’s $60B Terafab will face 3–5 years of delays and 30–50% higher wafer costs, posing negligible threat to TSMC’s advanced-node leadership. Meanwhile, TSMC shares have gained 7.5% YTD as Generali trimmed its Q4 stake by 26%.
1. BofA’s Terafab Assessment
BofA Securities finds that Musk’s Terafab venture faces execution risks, lacks process expertise, and will struggle to match the foundry dominance of TSMC’s advanced nodes.
2. Terafab Project Timeline and Costs
The project is estimated to require at least 3–5 years to reach operational readiness, with mass production unlikely before 2029. Initial 100,000-wafer-per-month capacity could demand over $60 billion in capex and incur 30–50% higher wafer costs than TSMC.
3. TSMC’s Year-to-Date Performance
TSMC shares have risen 7.5% year-to-date, making it the sole trillion-dollar company with gains this year. The advance is backed by more than 90% share in advanced third-party chip production and strong demand from AI and high-performance computing.
4. Generali’s Stake Reduction Implications
Generali Investments CEE trimmed its TSMC stake by 26% in Q4, selling 9,550 shares to hold 27,189. This divestment reflects a portfolio rebalance but is unlikely to alter TSMC’s broad institutional ownership base.