BP Economist Warns 15-16 Million bpd Disruption Sparks 40% Oil Price Surge
BP chief economist Gareth Ramsay warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed 15-16 million barrels per day from the market, triggering a 40% rally in Brent and 30% surge in WTI crude. Analysts say this largest-ever oil disruption could reshape energy markets and geopolitics for years.
1. Largest-Ever Oil Disruption
Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut 15-16 million barrels per day from global supply, marking the most significant disruption on record. Attacks on regional refineries have compounded the supply shortfall, sending benchmark Brent crude 40% higher and WTI crude up 30% since the conflict began.
2. BP Chief Economist’s Assessment
Gareth Ramsay described the current crisis as incomparable to past shocks, calling the chokepoint shutdown "every analyst’s worst nightmare." He highlighted the unprecedented scale of the disruption and warned that markets are now operating under a structural shortage not seen before.
3. Potential Long-Term Market Impacts
Analysts predict this shock could accelerate shifts in global pricing power toward producer nations and prompt governments to bolster strategic reserves. The conflict’s ripple effects may reshape refinery configurations, energy security policies and investment priorities across the sector for years.