EWZ•EWZ•Brazil’s presidential election, Israel’s parliamentary vote, US midterms and New Zealand’s election are among races that could affect financial markets. Polls show Brazil’s Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro neck-and-neck, with an October 25 runoff likely.
Brazil’s voters choose among presidential contenders on Sunday, with polls showing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and challenger Flavio Bolsonaro neck-and-neck. A runoff on October 25 is likely. Fiscal concerns, underpinned by rising spending, are the main investor issue; Capital Economics said a Flavio win could lift equities 10% to 20% and lower local-currency bond yields, while a Lula victory could lead to equity underperformance.
Israeli voters elect members of the 120-seat Knesset on October 27. Polls suggest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could lose, though no party has ever won an outright majority. The US holds midterms on November 3, with voters deciding whether Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress; some analysts warn a divided Congress could be bearish for the dollar. New Zealand’s November 7 election could unsettle investors, with polls suggesting Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s coalition may lose power.
Earlier votes included a landslide February win for Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling party, which cleared the way for fiscal stimulus, and a May setback for Britain’s Labour Party that preceded Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation. Elections in Germany, Hungary, Colombia and Peru also affected political and investor expectations. Colombia and Peru’s results added to a rightward shift in Latin America that some investors welcomed.
