Brent Crude Nears $115 as IMF Warns of Higher Prices, Slower Growth
The IMF warns the US-Israeli war with Iran could trigger “higher prices and slower growth,” citing Brent crude’s surge toward $115 a barrel and record monthly gains as US troops deploy to the region. Disrupted food and fertilizer shipments threaten northern hemisphere planting seasons, risking 36% of household consumption in low-income economies.
1. IMF Warns of Price Inflation and Growth Slowdown
The IMF warned the US-Israeli war with Iran could trigger a global asymmetric shock, stating “all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth.” It emphasized that the ultimate impact hinges on conflict duration, with lingering tensions expected to keep energy costs elevated.
2. Brent Crude at $115 a Barrel
Brent crude futures surged toward $115 a barrel, marking a record monthly increase as US troops deploy to the region and closure of the Strait of Hormuz raises risk premiums.
3. Food and Fertilizer Supply Strains
Disruptions to Gulf nutrient exports have driven up fertilizer and food costs, threatening northern hemisphere planting seasons and jeopardizing harvests in economies where food can account for 36% of consumption.
4. Low-Income Economies Under Pressure
Oil-dependent countries in Africa and Asia face difficulties securing supplies at inflated prices, heightening risks of food insecurity and socio-political tensions due to limited fiscal buffers.