Brent oil tops $100 as Middle East conflict intensifies, stoking supply fears

Prices remain below the peak reached in April, when Brent surged as high as $126 a barrel. But the return to oil above the triple-digit level poses a risk to a market with little room for error, as reduced inventories and limited spare capacity leave supplies vulnerable to further disruptions.

About 10 million bpd, or about 10% of world oil demand, of oil exports are still missing as a result of the Iran war, according to estimates from Vortexa, which tracks oil shipments.

While some producers including the United States, Canada and Guyana have ramped up output, the IEA said last month it expected global oil supply would fall this year by 4.3 million bpd, or about 4%.

With emergency stockpiles depleted and millions of barrels a day already offline, analysts say the market has less capacity to absorb new disruptions than it did at the start of the war.