Brokerages see strong setup for Valero on refining margins and Gulf Coast edge
VLO•Valero posted its highest-ever quarterly profit in the third quarter, beating Wall Street expectations. JPMorgan raised its price target to $447 and its fourth-quarter 2026 EPS forecast to $20.60, while Raymond James set a $530 target and UBS said Valero could reach a net cash position by the end of 2026.
1. Brokerage forecasts rise
JPMorgan raised its price target for Valero to $447 from $439 and its fourth-quarter 2026 EPS forecast to $20.60 from $14.35, above Wall Street’s $17.21 expectation. It cited stronger-than-expected refining and ethanol performance and said the quality of the earnings beat was “not in question.”
2. Refining advantages
Raymond James raised its price target to $530 and said Valero was positioned to benefit from a strong long-term US refining backdrop and near-term support from global supply disruptions. It said elevated freight rates give Gulf Coast refiners a competitive advantage, while Valero’s access to discounted heavy-sour crude could support margin and capture upside into the fourth quarter and beyond.
3. Cash outlook
UBS said Valero could reach a net cash position by the end of 2026 despite record buybacks, with refining margins driving excess cash generation and supporting additional shareholder returns.
