Bull Argues Tesla Worth $3,640 Per Share, Urges Delayed SpaceX Merger
SPCX•Tesla’s founder of Rebellionaire asserts the company could be worth $3,640 per share based on a $957 Robotaxi valuation by next summer and $2,647 from Optimus scaling a year thereafter. He warns that merging with SpaceX now would dilute Tesla shareholders to 40% ownership versus 90% in 2021.
1. Bull Case Valuation
Brad Ferguson breaks down a $3,640 per-share bull case for Tesla by attributing $957 to its Robotaxi business, expected to scale by next summer, and $2,647 to the Optimus humanoid robot program a year later. He argues these growth drivers are not fully reflected in current market value and justify a massive upside.
2. Merger Ownership Dilution
Ferguson highlights that a near-term merger with SpaceX would reduce Tesla shareholder ownership to roughly 40%, a sharp decline from the 90% stake they would have held in a 2021 merger scenario. He cautions that accepting a combined valuation now would leave shareholders giving up substantial future gains.
3. Timing and Shareholder Sentiment
Ferguson contends that selling at a proposed $600 per share valuation would shortchange investors on the eve of major growth catalysts. He urges resistance to any merger until Tesla’s Robotaxi and Optimus businesses demonstrate scalability and profitability improvements.
