Bund yields drop; oil below $100 overshadows German election 'disaster'

Euro area benchmark Bund yields dropped on Monday, driven by a steep drop in the oil price, while investors broadly shrugged off gains by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and a far-left party in regional elections. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who was clinging to power on Monday after his conservative party tumbled to its worst regional election defeat in postwar Germany, called Sunday's loss to the AfD in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania a "disaster". In addition, the far-left Linke party won the Berlin state election. Oil prices fell over 3.5% to below $100 a barrel for the first time since September 9 on Monday, on hopes diplomacy in the Iran war will get a chance at a UN meeting this week, and following reports of partial recovery in shipments from Saudi Arabia despite ongoing attacks by Yemen's Houthis. The AfD's growing popularity could have pressured Bunds on concerns that increased frictions within the federal government following weak CDU results would hinder the passage of reforms, clouding Germany's fiscal and economic outlook, analysts said. However, market participants still expect the current government to continue its policy agenda. "After a potentially contentious debate, the coalition will likely soften some of the envisaged entitlement cuts, for instance with a long transition period for the end of early retirement," Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, said. "Nonetheless, I still expect the coalition to implement the bulk of its planned pro-growth reforms," he added. German 10-year Bund yields DE10YT=RR were down 7 basis points at 3.45%. "Our base case remains that Merz survives, but the leadership meetings this week will be closely watched by markets looking for signs of further political instability at the core of Europe," said Evelyne Gomez-Liechti, multi-asset strategist at Mizuho. Money markets priced in a European Central Bank deposit rate of 3% by February and of 3.36% by late 2027 EURESTECBM9X10=ICAP. French and Italian government bond prices rebounded after Friday's sell-off, which was triggered by expectations of a steeper path for policy rates, a prospect that would increase borrowing costs for the euro area's heavily indebted countries. France's OAT yields FR10YT=RR were down 12 bps at 4.45%, while Italy's BTP yields IT10YT=RR fell 11 bps to 4.33%. They rose by 12.5 bps and 10 bps, respectively, on Friday. France's debt is expected to reach a record high of 119.3% of output in 2026, with a projected debt-to-GDP ratio of 121.7% in 2027, the finance ministry said on Saturday. "Arguably, a lot of the political and fiscal risk is already priced into the spread," Charlotte de Montpellier, senior economist at ING, said, adding that 10-year French bonds yield more than 10 bps above their Italian counterpart, which has debt metrics worse than France. "But without any positive developments in the Middle East and/or more encouraging headlines out of the political arena, the 10-year spread could occupy a range of 100 to 125 bps in the coming months," she added, referring to the spread over Bund yields. Italy has kept its budget deficit largely under control in recent years, but its debt burden remains high, with the European Commission forecasting public debt to rise to 138.5% of GDP in 2026 from 137.1% in 2025.

Bund yields drop; oil below $100 overshadows German election 'disaster'

Bund yields fall as oil slides

Oil slump and ECB rate expectations support bonds

French and Italian bonds rebound after Friday's sell-off

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