BYD will struggle to do a better Toyota impression
BYD aims to become the world’s largest carmaker by 2030, but reaching Toyota’s current volumes would require it to raise overseas production capacity to about 5 million vehicles, assuming China sales stay flat.
1. A Toyota-like growth path
BYD founder Wang Chuanfu told shareholders the company aims to become the world’s largest carmaker by 2030, overtaking Toyota, which sold roughly 11 million cars last year. BYD’s deliveries reached 4.6 million in 2025, comparable to Toyota’s annual volume in 1997. BYD has a 12% share of its home market and exports account for nearly half its sales.
2. Barriers to expansion
BYD has entered about 120 countries and territories but has no or limited access to the US, India and Japan, which together accounted for about 22 million passenger vehicles last year. The EU imposed an additional 17% duty on BYD imports from China, Brazil introduced 35% tariffs in July, and other markets have levies in place. China’s dealer association expects a double-digit percentage drop in domestic sales this year, while Volkswagen warned the market could contract by 20%.
3. Overseas capacity and new products
BYD has announced overseas factories in Hungary, Thailand, Brazil, Uzbekistan and Indonesia, with combined capacity of nearly 1 million units a year. The company would need to raise capacity outside China to about 5 million to reach its goal, assuming domestic sales stay flat. Premium brands accounted for more than 10% of sales in the first quarter, and commercial vehicle sales rose 28% in the first three quarters while car sales fell 4%.
