BYD will struggle to do a better Toyota impression
BYD aims to become the world’s largest carmaker by 2030, but the article says barriers include limited access to major markets, tariffs and slowing domestic sales. BYD delivered 4.6 million cars in 2025 and would need to raise overseas capacity to about 5 million units to match Toyota’s current volumes, assuming China sales stay flat.
1. Aiming to catch Toyota
BYD founder Wang Chuanfu told shareholders in June that the company aims to become the world’s largest carmaker by 2030, overtaking Toyota, which sold roughly 11 million cars last year. BYD deliveries reached 4.6 million in 2025, comparable to Toyota’s annual volume in 1997. The article says BYD’s growth has echoed Toyota’s earlier expansion, but the conditions for further growth are more difficult.
2. Trade and market barriers
BYD has entered about 120 countries and territories but has no or limited access to the US, India and Japan, which together accounted for about 22 million passenger vehicles last year. The EU has imposed an additional 17% duty on BYD imports, Brazil introduced 35% tariffs in July, and other markets have levies or may add duties. China’s dealer association expects domestic sales to fall by a double-digit percentage this year, while Volkswagen warned the market could contract by 20%.
3. Expanding production and products
BYD has announced overseas factories with combined capacity of nearly 1 million units a year and is considering deals involving existing production sites. To match Toyota’s current volumes, BYD would need to increase capacity outside China to about 5 million, assuming China sales stay flat. The company is also expanding premium brands and commercial vehicles; commercial vehicle sales rose 28% in the first three quarters, while car sales fell 4%.
