CaixaBank Research forecasts Spanish economic growth slowing to 2% in 2027
SPY•CaixaBank Research forecasts Spain’s GDP growth will slow to 2% in 2027 from 2.6% in 2026, still outpacing eurozone growth of 1.4%. A renewed escalation in the Middle East could lower Spanish growth to 1.7% and leave inflation 1.25 percentage points above the baseline.
1. Growth outlook
CaixaBank Research forecasts Spanish GDP growth of 2% in 2027, down from 2.6% in 2026, but above projected eurozone growth of 1.4%. It cites population gains, EU recovery funds and residential investment as support. New residential building permits are forecast to rise nearly 10% as demand remains strong and supply gradually increases.
2. Risks and global growth
Global growth is projected to accelerate to 3.3% from 3% in 2026 as the energy shock eases. A renewed escalation in the Middle East could reduce Spanish growth to 1.7%, with inflation 1.25 percentage points above the baseline.
