Canaccord Lifts Tesla Q1 Delivery Forecast to 370,000, Cuts Target to $420
Canaccord raised Tesla’s Q1 delivery estimate to 370,000 vehicles, a 0.6% increase, while cutting its price target to $420 from $520 by lowering the 2028 earnings multiple to 37x. The firm kept a Buy rating, citing stable U.S. and European demand and rising used-Tesla prices offsetting China weakness.
1. Revised Q1 Delivery Forecast
Canaccord increased its estimate for Tesla’s Q1 deliveries to 370,000 units from 367,700, representing a 0.6% rise. This slight upward revision underscores ongoing production and logistical efficiency improvements.
2. Price Target and Valuation Multiple
The firm cut its price target on Tesla stock to $420 from $520, reducing the 2028 earnings multiple to 37x from 46x. This adjustment reflects a broader recalibration of mega-cap tech valuations.
3. Regional Demand Trends
Demand remains uneven across regions, with China showing softness while the U.S. and Europe hold steady. Rising prices in the used-Tesla market and potential support from elevated gas prices are offsetting headwinds in mainland China.
4. Long-Term Growth Drivers
Canaccord maintained a Buy rating, emphasizing Tesla’s leadership in EV rollout and potential upside from autonomy and robotics. The analyst also highlighted the Terafab project, which aims to scale AI computing capacity by 2027 as a driver of future value.