Canadian National Projects EPS Growth with C$500M Capex Cut After Q4 Beat
Canadian National Railway reported Q4 earnings and revenues above estimates and raised its quarterly dividend. Management expects flat 2026 volumes but projects EPS and free cash flow growth through pricing, productivity and a C$500M capex reduction while the stock trades below peer multiples.
1. Q4 Earnings Beat and Dividend Increase
Canadian National Railway reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings per share of C$1.71, exceeding analyst consensus by C$0.07. Revenue climbed 4.2% year-over-year to C$3.96 billion, driven by higher intermodal and industrial products shipments. The company raised its quarterly dividend by 5% to C$0.42 per share, marking the 27th consecutive year of dividend growth. Since the Jan. 30 earnings release, the stock has rallied by 2.8%, reflecting investor confidence in CN’s pricing power and operational resilience.
2. 2026 Outlook and Cost Discipline
Management guided for flat full-year 2026 volumes compared with 2025 levels of 300 million tons, but expects to grow earnings per share by 6%–8% and free cash flow by 10% through disciplined pricing initiatives and productivity programs. Capital expenditures are slated to decline by C$500 million to C$3.7 billion, as investments shift from capacity expansion to network optimization and reliability projects. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.2x, well below its peers’ average of 2.8x.
3. Valuation and Shareholder Returns
At current multiples, CN trades below its five-year historical average EV/EBITDA of 11.5x and below the North American rail sector average of 12.2x. The board has authorized C$1.2 billion in share repurchases for 2026, up from C$800 million in the prior year, and the dividend payout ratio remains conservative at 54%, leaving room for further increases. With a nearly 20,000-mile rail network and annual volume of over 300 million tons, CN continues to generate stable cash flows that support ongoing capital returns to shareholders.