Analysts project Capital One’s fourth-quarter earnings per share to come in at approximately $2.15, a 5.9% decrease from the $2.28 reported in Q4 2024. This forecast reflects increased funding costs and a higher provision for credit losses, but still represents a respectable return on equity given the current rate environment. Revenue estimates stand near $8.7 billion, implying year-over-year growth of 7.4%, driven by expanded loan balances and higher average yields on the card portfolio.

Capital One’s total card loans are expected to exceed $200 billion by quarter end, marking an 11% increase compared with December 2024. The integration of Discover’s co-branded portfolios has added roughly $12 billion in receivables, while same-store card balance growth of 6% reflects stronger consumer spending on travel and dining. Management has guided for purchase volume growth near 9% for the full quarter, up from mid-single digits in prior periods.

The bank’s net charge-off ratio is forecast to hold around 2.70%, slightly above the 2.55% level seen in Q4 2024 but below cycle peaks of 3.00%. Provisions for credit losses are expected at approximately $700 million, an increase of 17% year-over-year, as management emphasizes building reserves against potential loan impairments. The coverage ratio is anticipated to finish the quarter near 1.50x, compared with 1.40x one year ago.

Of the 25 analysts covering Capital One, 68% maintain a Buy or Outperform rating, citing robust card growth and synergies from the Discover deal projected to contribute $400 million in annual cost savings by 2027. However, margin compression driven by higher funding costs has led five firms to lower their price targets over the past month. The consensus 12-month target implies upside of roughly 12% from current levels, reflecting confidence in medium-term earnings power despite near-term headwinds.