Carnival Raises 2026 Fuel Cost Forecast to $2.15 Billion, Cuts Earnings Outlook
Carnival Cruise Lines now expects full-year fuel expenses of $2.15 billion, up 33% driven by assumed Brent crude prices of $90/barrel through April, $85 in Q3 and $80 in Q4. The company warns these higher costs will reduce earnings despite posting its strongest Q1 profit since 2020.
1. Fuel Cost Forecast Revised Upward
Carnival now projects its full-year fuel expense at $2.15 billion, up roughly 33% from prior guidance. The forecast assumes Brent crude prices averaging $90 per barrel through early April, $85 in the third quarter and $80 in the fourth quarter, reflecting management’s internal fuel cost curve.
2. Profit Performance and Earnings Outlook
Despite reporting its strongest first-quarter profit since 2020, Carnival warns that elevated fuel expenses will reduce full-year earnings below earlier expectations. Management highlighted robust underlying demand but flagged fuel as the primary earnings headwind for the remainder of the year.