Carnival Shares Slip 3.63% to $30.02 Then Rally 8.5% on Volume

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Carnival shares plunged 3.63% to $30.02 before rebounding 8.5% on above-average trading volume and mixed earnings estimate revisions. The cruise operator reported record operational results in 2025 but still carries high debt that may curb future share gains.

1. Record 2025 Business Performance

Carnival Corporation delivered its strongest operating results in company history during fiscal 2025, carrying a record 14.8 million passengers across its global fleet, up 22% year-over-year. Total revenue climbed to $23.7 billion, a 19% increase driven by higher onboard spend per passenger, which rose by 8% to $95. Fleet occupancy reached 106%, the highest since before the pandemic, and adjusted EBITDA expanded by 24% to $6.1 billion, surpassing the high end of management’s guidance range.

2. Leverage Remains Elevated

Despite robust cash flows, Carnival ended 2025 with net debt of $14.5 billion, representing a net leverage ratio of 2.4 times adjusted EBITDA. Interest expense rose to $1.1 billion as average borrowing costs climbed above 4.5%. The company has scheduled debt maturities of $3.2 billion through 2027, and management plans to deploy excess free cash flow toward debt reduction, targeting a leverage ratio below 2.0 by year-end 2026.

3. Recent Share Surge and Analyst Outlook

In the latest trading session, Carnival shares jumped as trading volume topped the 60-day average by 35%, reflecting renewed investor interest following the fourth-quarter earnings release. However, consensus estimates have seen only modest upward revisions—8 analysts lifted fiscal 2026 EPS forecasts by an average of 4%, while 3 lowered theirs by 2%—suggesting limited near-term catalysts. Investors will be watching the company’s fuel hedge reset in Q2 and the rollout of its two new LNG-powered ships to assess sustainability of the current momentum.

Sources

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