Cass Forecasts 1.8% H2 Volume Gain as May Shipments Drop Only 1.2%
CASS•Cass Freight Index's multimodal shipments fell just 1.2% y/y in May, the smallest decline in 18 months, with volumes up 3% month-over-month. Its expenditures index rose 7.5% y/y and TL linehaul index climbed 6.9%, prompting a forecasted 1.8% y/y volume increase in H2.
1. Freight Volume Trends
The Cass Freight Index’s multimodal shipments component dipped just 1.2% year-over-year in May, the smallest decrease in 18 months, and rose 3% from April. A two-year-stacked volume decline narrowed to 5.2%, the lowest since February 2024, signaling a potential freight volume inflection after 40 months of declines.
2. Expenditures and Rate Indices
Cass’s expenditures index, incorporating total freight spend and fuel, jumped 7.5% year-over-year and 5.3% month-over-month (4.9% seasonally adjusted), its strongest gain since late 2022. The TL linehaul index, tracking rates ex-fuel and surcharges, increased 6.9% y/y, marking 17 straight months of year-over-year rate growth and the largest rise in nearly four years.
3. Capacity Constraints and H2 Outlook
Tight truckload capacity driven by stricter driver qualification enforcement and regulatory crackdowns is supporting higher spot and contract rates, with carriers expecting double-digit hikes. Assuming normal seasonal trends, the freight index is projected to achieve a 1.8% year-over-year volume increase in the second half, underpinned by tight inventories, falling tariffs and a softer dollar.
