Cass Shipments Index Hits 2009 Low as Freight Rates Jump 8%
Cass’ multimodal shipments index fell 7.1% year-over-year in January, marking its lowest reading since 2009 and down 2% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Despite lower volumes, the expenditures index rose 0.6% year-over-year, implying freight rates climbed roughly 8% y/y and the TL linehaul index was up 3.2% y/y.
1. Shipment Index Decline
Cass’ multimodal shipments index dropped 7.1% year-over-year in January and fell 14.7% versus two years ago, reaching its weakest level since 2009. Shipments were down 2% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis amid severe winter weather and retailers starting the year with lean inventories.
2. Expenditures and Implied Rates
The expenditures index, which measures total freight spend including fuel, increased 0.6% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Netting the volume decline against higher spend suggests freight rates rose approximately 8% year-over-year in January.
3. TL Linehaul Index Trends
The TL linehaul index, tracking contract-weighted spot and contract rates excluding fuel, climbed 1.7% from December and 3.2% year-over-year. This marked five consecutive months of sequential gains and 13 straight months of year-over-year increases after two years of declines.
4. Outlook and Market Dynamics
Cass projects the shipments index to be 11% lower year-over-year in February, though a weather-related rebound could support volumes. Carriers are pursuing one-year contract bids, with typical rate increases near 2%, and ongoing capacity constraints are expected to sustain moderate rate growth through 2026.